Impact of Hypertension on Disability Prevalence and Healthcare Cost Projections Among Thai Older Adults by 2040

Abstract

Background: Disability poses significant challenges for individuals, families, and societies, leading to diminished quality of life. Hypertension is notably linked to disability among older adults. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of disability and future healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand from 2022 to 2040.

Method: Data were obtained from the Health, Aging, and Retirement in Thailand (HART) survey, official government data, and published papers. The regression model was used to estimate the prevalence of disability among older adults. The micro-costing method was used to obtain the actual hospital service costs incurred for hypertensive patients. Then, the service costs of older adults with hypertension and the consumer price index were used to project future healthcare expenses.

Results: Thailand’s population of older adults aged 60 years or older is projected to increase from 15.77 million in 2022 to 24.04 million in 2040. Approximately 46% of those had hypertension. The prevalence of disability among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand ranged from 22-33%, and the incidence ranged from 11-18% by age group. There are an estimated 1.13 million older adults with hypertension and disability in 2022, and this number is forecasted to increase to 1.91 million by 2040. Disability-related healthcare expenditures among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand are estimated to be USD 70.72 million in 2022 and are forecasted to reach USD 152.80 million by 2040.

Conclusions: This study sheds light on the anticipated health burden faced by community-dwelling older adults with hypertension and disability, along with the associated healthcare costs in Thailand. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating service provision strategies and budgetary planning at the national level.